EDS: Not for use before 00.02am (AEDT) November 15.
By Miles Godfrey
SYDNEY, Nov 15 AAP - More than 500 schoolies will end up in hospital on the Gold Coast next week, with about 18 poisoned by drugs and a further 90 suffering alcohol-related mental or behavioural problems.
That's the stark prediction from new software developed by the CSIRO to help Queensland health bosses marshal resources during the annual end-of-term boozefest.
About 28,000 schoolies are forecast to descend on the Gold Coast from Saturday, with thousands of others heading to different Australian locations or overseas to let off steam.
In a bid to accurately gauge the health response, including staffing levels and bed vacancies, Queensland Health is using a new tool developed by Australian scientists to forecast exactly how many schoolies will need treatment.
The Patient Admission Prediction Tool (PAPT) uses historical data and inputs other things, including weather, time of day and population levels, to predict how many people will need help.
"We're using the latest data to build a model and that is used then to forecast how many people will rock up to the emergency room," said David Hansen, CEO of CSIRO's Australian E-Health Research Centre.
It's the first time PAPT has been been used for schoolies week and it paints a grim picture of what will unfold.
The CSIRO's modelling shows there will be 2700 presentations to Gold Coast Health's emergency rooms in the first week of schoolies, with around 20 per cent (540) of those students.
The modelling forecasts that about 90 people aged 17-19 will need treatment each week during schoolies for alcohol-related mental and behavioural problems.
A further 18 per week will need treatment for drug poisoning, 30 per week will need help for cuts and grazes to the head - and dozens of others will suffer cuts and grazes to other body parts, often from broken glass.
CSIRO data shows that the number schoolies needing treatment for alcohol intoxication tripled between 2011 and 2012.
Presentations related to alcohol intoxication increases by 40 times during Schoolies compared to other times of the year, CSIRO said.
"Having this information about admissions allows us to plan the staff, medical supplies and beds needed to care for those schoolies and manage waiting times for our other patients who are still arriving with other serious injuries," said Gold Coast Health's Dr James Lind.
The PAPT software may be rolled out to other hospitals, government services and business in future, Mr Hansen said.
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