AUSTRALIAN retailers are dreaming of a bright Christmas with economists predicting the best festive season spending in three years.
Deloitte Access Economics has made the forecast on the back of improved consumer confidence, interest rate cuts, solid wages growth and house prices stabilising.
"For retailers it won't be the Christmas of their dreams," Deloitte partner David Rumbens says in the firm's latest quarterly retail forecasts report.
"But it may provide them with a vital ingredient which has been missing over the previous two years - decent cash flow."
Around 70 per cent of the 52 senior retail executives in the Deloitte survey say they expect higher sales this Christmas from a year ago, while 13 per cent believe it will be worse than 2011.
Nearly one-third of retailers say they expect to begin discounting by early December.
"While it may be a brighter Christmas, it's likely to be back to the reality of a hard slog for retailers in 2013," Mr Rumbens said.
The improvement remains below the trend rate of retail growth in the days before the global financial crisis.
"Income growth is modest and these days consumers are taking a more measured approach to borrowing and spending than they have in the past," he said.
Retail sales turnover is forecast to rise by 2.9 per cent in 2012/13, by 2.7 per cent the following year and by 3.6 per cent in 2014/15 as broader economic conditions and housing activity improve.
Western Australia and Queensland remain the best longer-term bets for retail sales growth, Mr Rumbens said.
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